Articles by: Kirk Spano

2012 Another Year the World Won’t End

January 2012

2012: Another Year the World Won’t End

Throughout 2011 we heard proclamations of doom and gloom from market pundits to gold traders to vote seeking politicians to assorted snake oil salesmen to the converts of ancient Mayan religion.  Each has a version of a coming apocalypse, some including hyperinflation, 50% unemployment, widespread famine, world war or complete destruction of the globe due to galactic forces beyond our control.  In my estimation, each is about as likely as the other to occur, that is, not very likely at all.

If you will recall, on several occasions back in 2007 and 2008, I discussed the vast financial problems that the globe faced. Today and recently, those who missed the actual financial collapse are running around telling us about a coming new bigger and badder financial destruction to come. To put this as plainly as possible, they are very late to the party.

While it is possible, if not probable, that the global economy and financial markets will operate on very uneven paths for an extended period, the big financial debacle has already occurred.   Could we see another stock market drop of 30%?  Absolutely.  Is real estate likely to keep falling in the short term?  Probably.  Will governments continue to politic us into migraines and slow solutions?  What else is new.

But, and this is important to observe, there are forces out there that are creating balance as you read.  The slowing of developed economies is being offset by growth in developing economies.  The forces of deflation and the forces of inflation are nearly balanced on aggregate (though as any shopper can tell you are uneven from item to item).  The slow methodical approach of Germany and the European Union to gradually fix Europe is neutering quick clicker finger traders who are betting on financial turmoil in the hopes of making a fast get rich strike.

All in all, despite being unsure of things a year or so ago, I am quite confident that my newfound optimism is well placed.  

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Q3 2010: Demographic Depression

October 2010 — I have updated the charts as of August 2014 due to heavy interest to this page. I have not changed any prose, so right or wrong, this is where I was in October 2010. I am still of the belief that demographics will be challenging most of […]

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