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Letters & Reports
These are my periodic letters and special reports for clients and the interested. My general themes have been consistently been to identify risks and search for opportunities in the biggest trends.
Embrace Change And Volatility
Today, I am publishing material to help investors adapt in an era of rapid change. These changes are impacted by aging demographics, climate change, global debt, technological advancement and geopolitical challenges.
By embracing change, we can make volatility our ally. Sustainable investing strategies can be the anchor that both builds and protects your financial freedom.
For the past few years, I have been writing about how the global economy is poised for a very long period of slower growth. Early this year on MarketWatch, I dubbed what was going on as “slow growth forever.” While I know that people want to believe that the global and U.S. economies can grow faster, the reality is that slower growth is structural in nature.Read More
The “dark” philosopher Heraclitus of Ephesus said that, “the only thing that is constant is change.” In today’s world, change is so constant, and seemingly accelerating, that many people are befuddled because they feel the world is passing them by. This feeling of being passed by, which drives frustration and anger, is nothing new though. Thousands of years ago, people had the same feelings. If change has always caused frustration and anger, has anything really changed?Read More
The saying “sell in May and go away” might have a more true meaning this year than most. Global risks to the economy and markets are rising at a rate I have not seen since 2006-07.Read More
Happy New Year! For me I am glad to see 2015 go. I had a heart injury, a house fire and have been early on several stock picks. Such is life. I survived, nobody got hurt in the fire, I’m back in my house and early doesn’t usually mean wrong if you are patient.
This is very important reading in my opinion, so please get a beverage and hunker down for a half hour. At least one topic I’m going to cover could spawn a book, but I will keep it as short as possible.Read More
In autumn of 2011, I wrote in MarketWatch’s “Next Great Investment Columnist” competition, that one thing was going to change everything for America. That one thing was the development of our own natural gas and oil reserves. My analysis landed me a spot on MarketWatch.com of the Wall Street Journal network in November of 2011. A few weeks later, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs made public their research that agreed with mine.
By 2012, banks and investors started flooding the oil and gas market with money for drilling projects. In my annual freedom letter of 2012, I said that America’s oil and gas development was so great that it would ultimately lead to our freedom from OPEC. I repeated that sentiment on MarketWatch but few people in the broader population believed me. Today, American imports of oil and gas from OPEC are at the lowest levels in 28 years and down over 50% from the 2008 imports.
Last summer in an article titled the Peak Oil Plateau I laid out the case for dramatically lower oil prices and why to sell most oil and gas stocks. As it turns out, I understated the case and prices crashed even further than I anticipated as traders were able to pound shares to prices below what is justified due to pessimistic investor psychology lasting well beyond the financial crisis. After about a year now of carnage among oil and gas companies struggling with debt and low energy prices, I believe we are in store for another dramatic shift.Read More
One of the things that makes America great is the opportunity. Unfortunately, since the early 1980s, much of that opportunity has been confiscated by the greedy, power hungry, dishonest, lazy and ideologically delusional.
Wall Street, and the financial industry in general, are at the heart of the breakdown of opportunity in America. They aren’t alone of course, there is also a class of crony business executives, legal and accounting skimmers, as well as, power hungry and ego driven politicians who have been leading us down a path of lower living standards for us and (what’s worse) our kids. And yes, there is a group of people in America who are just plain lazy, although, what they’re skimming is actually a much smaller dollar amount than the others mentioned.
As you might have already guessed, this year’s “Freedom” letter isn’t going to be nicest or most diplomatic I’ve written. Today, I am going to share some realities and lessons that I’ve learned over the years. These things can help you do very well for yourself, your family and your community over time. I will be aiming much of what I say to the millennial generation because if they don’t succeed, then America truly is in trouble. Everything I am saying though is applicable to everybody from what I can tell.Read More