Letters

These are my periodic letters and special reports for clients and the interested. My general theme are to identify risks and search for opportunities in the biggest trends.
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You can also follow me on Seeking Alpha and regular Friday webinars that I post to my YouTube channel.

The Inflation Narratives Are Probably Wrong

(Originally published to Seeking Alpha) The hyper stimulated “reopen” trade is feeding narratives that are simply wrong. Traders looking to find greater fools are spinning tales from soundbites, tweets and out of context data into today’s echo chamber half truths. Here is a truth to know and understand: there is no organic economic […]

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2021 Outlook

Each year I write my “futile forecasts” for the coming year. The idea behind “futile” is that most forecasting gets looked at the wrong way. It’s not about getting some number right at the end of the year. Forecasting is a series of adjustments to scenarios that you are keeping […]

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Using REITs In Your Portfolio

REITs are favorites among dividend investors. But there is a fallacy that real estate as an asset class outperforms stocks in general. That is not true. Over the past 5 years, inclusive of dividends, these are the returns for the Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) representing the Nasdaq 100, the SPDR […]

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Freedom To Fold And Wait For A Better Hand

Over the past few years I have been playing in the World Series of Poker professional circuit. I’ve played poker since I was a teenager. People have been saying I’ve been lucky for 35 years. It’s not luck. One of the key lessons I have learned is that sometimes, the […]

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Coronavirus And Asset Allocation Update

The Coronavirus Covid-19 is a human tragedy that is likely to hit the United States imminently. All of our hearts bleed for those affected and we wish for the best possible health outcomes. If you are up to date in reading my 2020 Outlook & Game Plan: Navigating Overvalued Markets […]

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4th Quarter Outlook And Game Plan

This piece is normally reserved for clients and people registered with BluemoundAM.com. I am making it available due to the urgency that I believe it represents. The stock markets are in increasing danger. Here is a link to my weekly webinar that is available on YouTube on a short delay: […]

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